Research

My current academic researches focus on the causes and consequences of financial instability. My main research interests include Financial Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Development Economics, and Political Economy. 

Papers

Financial development and the occurrence of banking crises                                                                         

with Alexandru Minea                                                                                                                                                      

Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, 2018, vol. 96, pp. 344-354                                                               

 (CNRS : 2, HCERES : A, FNEGE : 1)

Abstract: We perform an in-depth analysis of the effect of different dimensions of financial development on the occurrence of banking crises. Horse-race estimations carried out on a large dataset of 113 banking crises in 112 countries reveal that the growth of M3/GDP and the level of banks' Credits/Deposits increase the occurrence of banking crises, while the growth and sometimes the volatility of the ratio of banks' assets to the sum of banks' and the Central Bank's assets decrease it. In addition, we do not find a significant effect of banks' Credits/GDP. Finally, we unveil heterogeneities related to nonlinearities in the effect of financial development, the time span for the pre-crisis dynamics of financial development, and the level of economic development. Our results suggest that only some dimensions of financial development are significantly associated with the occurrence of banking crises

Forms of democracy and economic growth volatility                                                                                           

with Alexandru Minea                                                                                                                                                       

Published in Economic Modelling, 2019, vol. 81, pp. 594-603                                                                                    

(CNRS: 2, HCERES: A)

Abstract: Using a panel of 140 countries over the 1975-2007 period, we disaggregate democracies across five institutional dimensions (government forms, electoral rules, state forms, number of veto players, and age of democracies), to study the precise forms of democracy that may explain the lower economic growth volatility (EGV) in democracies compared to dictatorships, usually emphasized by the literature. We find that, while all government forms decrease EGV to the same extent, proportional electoral rules outperform majoritarian and mixed electoral rules, suggesting a role for a more inclusive political decision-making process. In addition, EGV is significantly lower in unitary states, suggesting a role for a limited separation of power between the central government and the local authorities, while the effect of the number of veto players and the age of democracies is significant only in developed countries. Consequently, the choice between various forms of democracy may not be neutral for EGV, and, possibly, for countries' development path. 

Classifying non-bank currency systems using web data                                                                                      

with Ariane Tichit and Diego Landivar                                                                                                                          

Published in International Journal of Community Currency Research                                                                    

(unreferenced journal in the CNRS, HCERES, FNEGE rankings)

Abstract: This paper develops a new classification of non-bank currency systems based on a lexical analysis from French-language web data in order to derive an endogenous typology of monetary projects, based on how these currencies are depicted on the internet. The advantage of this method is that it by-passes problematic issues currently found in the literature to uncover a clear classification of non-bank currency systems from exogenous elements. Our textual corpus consists of 320 web pages, corresponding to 1,210 text pages. We first apply a downward hierarchical clustering method to our data, which enables us to endogenously derive five different classes and make distinctions among non-bank currency system and between these and the standard monetary system. Next, we perform a similarity analysis. Our results show that all non-bank currency systems define themselves in relation to the standard monetary system, with the exception of Local Exchange Trading Systems.

Does more finance mean more inequality in times of crisis?                                                                    

with Benjamin Williams                                                                                                                                                    

Forthcoming in Economic Systems                                                                                                                                  

(CNRS: 3, HCERES: B)

Abstract: Many recent empirical studies have shown that both banking crises and financial development (FD) play an important role in understanding the dynamics of income inequality (IncI) over the past few decades. However, to date, no study has investigated the role of FD in the amplification of IncI following banking crises. This paper seeks to address this issue using a sample of 69 banking crises in 54 countries, over the 1977-2013 period. Our analysis suggests that FD is associated with a significant increase in IncI in the aftermath of banking crises. This result is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications and is unaffected by various potential sources of endogeneity. We also show that the relationship between FD and the redistributive consequences of banking crises is not subject to a threshold effect and is stronger for developing countries.

Does more finance lead to longer banking crises? An empirical analysis of the role of financial development in the duration of banking crises                                                                                             

with Alexandru Minea and Marcel Voia                                                                                                                      

 Working Paper version

Abstract: Empirical studies emphasize that higher financial development (FD) amplifies the output cost of banking crises. However, no study has so far investigated the effect of FD on another key dimension of banking crises, namely their duration. We address this issue using a large sample of 96 banking crises in 75 countries over the 1977-2014 period. Our analysis suggests that higher FD is significantly associated with an increase in the duration of banking crises (DBC). Moving from the lowest to the highest FD quintile raises the length of banking crises by 4 to 6 years. This result is robust to a broad range of alternative specifications and is unaffected by unobserved heterogeneity or endogeneity. Finally, we show that the effect of FD on the DBC is subject to non-linearities, and is stronger during the last decade and in developed countries.

Forms of Democracy and Financial Development                                                                                                

with Pierre Mandon                                                                                                                                                            

Etudes et Documents, 2015, n°23, CERDI Working Papers

Abstract: The political economy of finance literature emphasizes the critical role of political institutions in promoting financial development. Related empirical findings highlights a robust positive effect of democratic regimes on financial development compared to dictatorships. However, no study focused so far on identifying the precise political institutions explaining the financial development enhancing effect of democracies. In this paper, we study the effects of disaggregated political institutions on financial development along three institutional dimensions, namely forms of government, electoral rules and state forms. Using a large panel of 140 countries over 1984-2007, we show that institutional details are of crucial importance, since the positive effect of democracies on financial development clearly depends on the precise institutional dimensions at work, namely: parliamentary governments and, to a lesser extent federal states. Thus, our study contributes to the institutional design debate, by showing that the simple promotion of democratic regimes might not be sufficient to foster financial development.

Other Papers

Crise Economique (In French)                                                                                                                                    

Chapter for the forthcoming book Abécédaire de la rupture, interdisciplinary collection Presses Blaise Pascal, 2019

Works in Progress

Papers 

An anatomy of the financial cycle                                                                                                                               

with Samuel Ligonnière

Finance, income inequality and banking crises                                                                                          

with Samuel Ligonnière

Revolving door and banking sector performances                                                                                                

with Benjamin Williams

Climate and systemic risks: mapping and assessing the consequences of extreme weather events on the vulnerability of the banking sector                                                                                            

with Olivier Damette

Books 

A history of financial systems and their crises                                                                                                      

with Benjamin Williams

Refereeing activity

- Revue de l'OFCE

- International Journal of Emerging Markets